Hobsbawm's use of the term "short Twentieth Century" for the period from the start of World War I to the fall of communism is presumably intended to evoke historians' commonly used term "long Nineteenth Century", referring to the period from the start of the French Revolution in 1789 the start of World War I.
Throughout the following, page numbers come from Time Warner Books, 2002 Abacus edition reprint.
Hobsbawm points out the abysmal record of recent attempts to predict the world's future. "The record of forecasters in the past thirty of forty years, whatever their professional qualification as prophets, has been so spectacularly bad that only governments and economic research institutes still have, or pretend to have, much confidence in it." (The Age of Extremes, p.5-6) He quotes President Calvin Coolidge, in a message to Congress on December 4, 1928, practically the eve of the Great Depression, saying, "The country can regard the present with satisfaction and anticipate the future with optimism." (ibid. p.85)
Speaking of the future himself, he largely confines himself to predicting continued turmoil: "The world of the third millenium will therefore almost certainly continue to be one of violent politics and violent political changes. The only thing uncertain about them is where they will lead," (ibid. p.460) and expressing the view that "If humanity is to have a recognizable future, it cannot be by prolonging the past or the present." (ibid. p. 585)
In one of his few more concrete predictions, he writes that "Social distribution and not growth would dominate the politics of the new millenium." (ibid. p.77 )
"The botched peace settlements after 1918 multiplied what we, at the end of the twentieth century, know to be the fatal virus of democracy, namely the division of the body of citizens exclusively along ethnic-national or religious lines." (ibid. p.139) "The reductio ad absurdum of... anti-colonialist logic was the attempt by an extremist Jewish fringe group in Palestine to negociate with the Germans (via Damascus, then under the Vichy French) for help in liberating Palestine from the British, with they regarded as the top priority for Zionism. (A militant of the group involved in this mission eventually became prime minister of Israel: Yitzhak Shamir.) (ibid. p.172)
It is a central thesis of Hobsbawm's book that, from the start, State Communism betrayed the socialist and internationalist vision it claimed to uphold. In particular, State Communism always dispensed with the democratic element of the socialist vision: "Lenin... concluded from the start that the liberal horse was not a runner in the Russian revolutionary race." (ibid. p.58) This anti-liberalism ran deep. In 1933, with Benito Mussolini firmly in control of Italy, "Moscow insisted that the Italian communist leader P. Togliatti withdraw the suggestion that, perhaps, social-democracy was not the primary danger, at least in Italy." (ibid. p.104)
As for support for international revolution, "The communist revolutions actually made (Yugoslavia, Albania, later China) were made against Stalin's advice. The Soviet view was that, both internationally and within each country, post-war politics should continue within the framework of the all-embracing anti-fascist alliance... There is no doubt that Stalin meant all this seriously, and tried to prove it by dissolving the Comintern in 1943, and the Communist Party of the USA in 1944. (ibid. p.168) "[T]he Chinese Communist regime, though it criticized the USSR for betraying revolutionary movements after the break between the two countries, has no comparable record of practical support for Third World liberation movements." (ibid. p. 72)
On the other hand, he is no friend of the Maoist doctrine of perpetual revolution: "Mao was fundamentally convinced of the importance of struggle, conflict and high tension as something that was not only essential to life but prevented the relapse into the weaknesses of the old Chinese society, whose very insistence on unchanging permanence and harmony had been its weakness." (ibid. p.469) Hobsbawm draws a straight line from this belief to the disastrous Great Leap Forward and the subsequent Chinese famine of 1959-1961.
Communism, Hobsbawm argues, ultimately fell because, eventually, "...hardly anyone believed in the system or felt any loyalty to it, not even those who governed it." (ibid., p.488)
"As it happened, the regimes most deeply committed to laissez-faire economics were also sometimes, and notably in the case of Reagan's USA and Thatcher's Britain, profoundly and viscerally nationalist and distrustful of the outside world. The historian cannot but note that the two attitudes are contradictory." (ibid. p.412) He points up the irony that "[T]he most dynamic and rapidly growing economy of the globe after the fall of Soviet communism was that of Communist China, leading Western business-school lectures and the authors of management manuals, a flourishing genre of literature, to scan the teachings of Confucius for the secrets of enterpreneurial success." (ibid. p.412-413)
Ultimately, in world terms, he sees capitalism being just as much of a failure as state communism: "The belief, following neoclassical economics, that unrestricted international trade would allow the poorer countries to come closer to the rich, runs counter to historical experience as well as common sense. [The examples of successful export-led Third Word industrialization usually quoted -- Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea -- represent less than two percent of the Third World population]." (ibid. p.571, brackets in the original)
He also writes, provocatively, "Would the horror of the holocaust be any less if historians concluded that it exterminated not six millions (the rough and almost certainly exaggerated original estimate) but five or even four?" (ibid. p.43)
He finds damning statistics to back up his claim of the total failure of state communism to promote the general welfare: "In 1969, Austrians, Finns and Poles could expect to die at the same average age (70.1 years) but in 1989, Poles had a life expectancy about four years shorter than Austrians and Finns," (ibid. p.472) "...The great [Chinese] famine of 1959-61, probably the greatest famine of the twentieth century: According to official Chinese statistics, the country's population in 1959 was 672.07 millions. At the natural growth rate of the preceeding seven years, which was at least 20 per thousand per year, one would have expected the Chinese population in 1961 to have been 699 millions. In fact it was 658.59 millions or forty millions less than might have been expected. (ibid. p.466-467, note)
Similarly, "Brazil, a monument to social neglect, had a GNP per capita almost two-and-a-half as large as Sri Lanka in 1939, and over six times as large at the end of the 80s. In Sri Lanka, which had subsidized basic foodstuffs and given free education and health care until the later 1970s, the average newborn could expect to live several years longer than the average Brazilian, and to die as an infant at about half the Brazilian rate in 1969, at a third of the Brazilian rate in 1989. The percentage of illiteracy in 1989 was about twice as great in Brazil as on the Asian island." (ibid. p.577)
However, he does use youth culture as a lens to view the changes in the late-twentieth-century social order:
The failure of prediction
The end of Imperialism
Surprisingly, for a writer clearly of the left, Hobsbawm has very mixed feelings about the end of the nineteenth-century imperial order, largely because he is no happier with the nation-states that replaced the empires. "[World War I]... had made the habitual and sensible process of international negotiation suspect as 'secret diplomacy'. This was largely a reaction against the secret treaties arranged among the Allies during the war... The Bolsheviks, discovering these sensible documents in the Tsarist archives, had promptly published them for the world to read." (ibid. p.34)The failure of communism
The Russian Revolution was not the revolution of the most advanced capitalist societies predicted by Karl Marx. As Hobsbawm puts it, "Capitalism had proved far easier to overthrow where it was weak or barely existed than in its heartlands." (ibid. p.82) Even within Russia, Hobsbawm doubts the ostensibly "progressive" effects of the revolution: "What remained [after revolution and civil war] was a Russia even more firmly anchored in the past... [W]hat actually governed the country was an undergrowth of smaller and larger bureaucracy, on average even less educated and qualified than before." (ibid. p.379)The failures of free-market capitalism
None of this throws Hobsbawm into the embrace of free-market capitalism: "Those of us who lived through the years of the Great Slump still find it almost impossible to understand how the orthodoxies of the pure free market, then so obviously discredited, once again came to preside over a global period of depression in the late 1980s and 1990s, which once again, they were equally unable to understand or to deal with." (ibid. p.103)Fascism
Unsurprisingly, Hobsbawm's contempt for fascism is so complete that he does not bother with the detailed demolition he applies to state communism and free-market capitalism. Denying fascism's claim to philosophical respectability, he writes, "Mussolini could have readily dispensed with his house philosopher, Giovanni Gentile, and Hitler probably neither knew nor cared about the support of the philosopher Heidegger." (ibid. p.117) Instead, he claims, the popular appeal of fascism lay with its claims to technocratic achievement: "Was not the proverbial argument in favour of fascist Italy that 'Mussolini made the trains run on time'?" (ibid. p.124)Hobsbawm's use of statistics
Hobsbawm often uses statistics to paint a broad picture of a society at a particular time. With reference to the contemporary United States (at the time of writing) he points out, "In 1991, 58 per cent of all black families in the USA were headed by a single woman and 70 per cent of all children were born to single mothers," (ibid. p.322) and "In 1991 15 per cent of what was proportionally the largest prison population in the world -- 426 prisoners per 100,000 population -- were said to be mentally ill." (ibid. p.)Hobsbawm on the arts
Given all of this, it should be no surprise that Hobsbawm is equally skeptical about any claims of "progress" in the arts. Post-war modernist painting, he writes:Hobsbawm on popular culture
Some of Hobsbawm's remarks on popular culture suggest that he is treading on turf that he does not know as well as he knows his political history. He writes, "Buddy Holly, Janis Joplin, Brian Jones of the Rolling Stones, Bob Marley, Jimi Hendrix and a number of other popular divinities fell victim of a life-style designed for early death. What made such deaths symbolic was that youth, which they represented, was impermanent by definition." (ibid. p.324) It is hard to see how Holly's death in a plane crash or Marley's death by cancer can be easily attributed to what most people mean by a rock and roll "life-style."
Although clearly, in Hobsbawm's view, this is not utterly without positive aspects, he nonetheless writes that "The cultural revolution of the latest twentieth century can thus best be understood as the triumph of the individual over society, or rather, the breaking of the threads which in the past had woven human beings into social textures" (ibid. p.334) and evokes this as paralleling Margaret Thatcher's claim that 'There is no society, only individuals'. (ibid. p.337)